Throughout his most recent campaign, candidate Donald Trump declared that his second term would bring economic prosperity for Americans. Shortly after the election, ABC News reported that 80% of President Trump’s supporters cited the economy as a major influence on their vote, and on Election Day itself, NBC News reported that exit polling showed that 88% of people who believed that the economy was “poor” voted for Trump. It’s not surprising, seeing as President Trump repeatedly claimed he would “get the prices down” and “end inflation and make America affordable again” during his rallies and press conferences.
President Trump has touted his policies on immigration and tariffs, which sound favorable to American workers, as moves towards greater economic prosperity. But they mask a problem that spells trouble for the economy. These policies together will do nothing but drive prices up for average Americans by simultaneously gutting and leaning heavily upon the foundational industry of the country’s economy: agriculture.
Historically, to borrow President Trump’s slogan, agriculture made America great. It accounted for 82% of U.S. exports and laid the path for future economic development in 1860, according to the U.S. Embassy in Germany. While the past of the United States contrasts with our present in many ways, we cannot escape the industry that built our country. Last summer, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce reported that 22.1 million American jobs are directly dependent on agriculture, making up 10.4% of the job market. Furthermore, 12 million other American jobs are indirectly dependent on the agricultural sector, bringing the grand total of the job market dependency on U.S. farming to roughly 15%.
And here lies the economic threat of President Trump’s immigration policy: 42% of farm workers are immigrants who are not legally authorized to be in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Just this past April, USA Today reported that President Trump has set a goal of deporting one million immigrants annually. Putting these two figures together, it is clear that the president’s immigration policy means trouble for the agricultural industry. The deportation of undocumented immigrants will leave farms with positions they cannot fill. In a recent New York Times article, Rebecca Davis O’Brien and Miriam Jordan reported that “The U.S. farming sector has suffered a labor shortage for decades. Immigrants, mainly from Mexico and Central America, have filled the void: Farmers say they cannot find American-born laborers to do the strenuous work.”
Even those whose livelihoods are not connected to farming will feel the burden of the industry’s collapse. The connection between the success of the agricultural sector and the lives of ordinary Americans could be seen recently in the price of eggs. As Think Global Health has reported, the Avian Influenza outbreak has infected American farms’ chickens at alarming rates, resulting in the extermination of 53 million domesticated birds and creating an egg shortage. Consequently, egg prices skyrocketed. According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the national average for egg prices across U.S. cities reached a record high of over $6 per dozen last March, double the price from September 2024, the month the virus first entered the U.S. And those on the bottom end of the income spectrum suffered the most. David Ortega, Noel W. Stuckman Chair in Food Economics & Policy at Michigan State University, explained to Think Global Health that "It's really low-income households that bear the brunt of any [egg] price increases because they spend a significant higher portion of their disposable income on food."
While the chicken crisis affected one product, President Trump’s immigration policy will have a more far-reaching effect. As farms empty, production will only further decrease and inflated prices will begin to spread to other top American farm-produced goods like dairy, beef, wheat, soybeans, and corn.
Without a steady, reliable stream of U.S. food production, American grocers will have to turn to alternative suppliers to stock their shelves – foreign suppliers. And here is where a second feature of President Trump’s economic policies comes into play in hurting the agricultural sector. According to a piece by Jennifer Clarke for the BBC, tariffs will drive up prices American consumers pay for foreign products. Beyond groceries, there will be, as of today, a 25% price increase for goods made with steel and aluminum, and at least a 125% price increase for all products from China. All of these tariffs will have an effect on food prices. In an April CNN article, Nathaniel Meyersohn reported that “Shoppers can expect to see prices rise on seafood, coffee, fruit, cheese, nuts, candy bars and other imported foods, according to experts. Items that contain ingredients and packaging like plastic and aluminum from other countries will also be hit. Perishable food prices will rise first, followed by shelf-stable goods.”
While President Trump frames the taxes on foreign goods as an internal promotion for American business, no business can thrive when regular Americans must empty their wallets to pay for groceries.
Trump told the voting public, according to PBS News Hour, “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again.” Almost half of U.S. voters accepted this promise in casting their ballots. But regular Americans – regardless of their vote – will face growing and inescapable inflation in their grocery stores and beyond. In the end, the candidate who promised to “Make America Great Again” has managed to manufacture policies that work in tandem to cripple the very foundation of the American economy – agriculture. We must reject these policies in order to make sure that our growing industry continues to grow.